Externally, the global economy is stabilising, with better growth is expected this year.
The minders of the Modi government's economic policy believe it would take 7 to 8 quarters -- or till around late 2018 -- for the economy to reap the rewards of demonetisation.
Stating that a weak fiscal position continues to constrain India's sovereign ratings, Fitch said the next government's medium-term fiscal policy will be of particular importance from a rating perspective.
A report published in British journal The Lancet reckons India's working population will surpass China's in the mid-2020s.
China's economy, which suffered 6.8 per cent slump in the first quarter due to the coronavirus pandemic -- the worst in 44 years -- bounced back posting 4.9 per cent growth between July and September buoyed by the government's sweeping efforts to stimulate demand and consumption.
The 30-share Sensex ended down 261 points at 28,747 and the 50-share Nifty ended down 83 points at 8,684.
'Karnataka's finances are much healthier than the Union government's, which is indebted to nearly twice the extent of the state.'
The central bank maintained its bias towards a rate hike.
Growth in the Asia-Pacific region will be low, the aqency said
'Our stable outlook currently points to the fact that the ratings are likely to remain stable for the next couple of years.'
The mismatch between PMI and core sector could also be due to the fact that while core sector is calculated year-on-year, PMI is calculated month-on-month.
'While we note the very strong cyclical recovery in the economy, we believe there is still uncertainty over medium-term prospects.'
Moody's expects macroeconomic policies to contribute to sustained robust growth.
Concerns are swirling that Japan's dream of hosting the Tokyo 2020 Olympics could be a fatality of the spread of the new coronavirus, jolting organisers, sponsors, and media firms who have spent billions of dollars in the run-up to the event. Global insurers face a hefty bill if the coronavirus forces the cancellation of the Games, with estimates of the cost of insuring the showpiece running into billions of dollars.
The Economic Survey called for improving business environment.
The report said inflation is expected to remain below 5 per cent over the two years.
The government's second round of stimulus will spur consumer spending in the near term but support to economic growth will be minimal, Moody's Investors Service said.
A bleak demand outlook for steel in the domestic as well as global market is also another reason Tata Steel may be looking to have additional liquidity as margins are expected to take a hit in the coming quarters.
Manufacturing activities in India advanced further and touched a 31-month high in May supported by stronger increase in new orders and favourable market conditions, which in turn generated more employment opportunities, a monthly survey said on Thursday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 57.2 in April to 58.7 in May, indicating the strongest improvement in the health of the sector since October 2020. The May PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the 23rd straight month.
A rise in farm sector is estimated to raise demand for industrial goods and services, it added.
Although there are serious risks facing the US economy in the coming year, there is also a good chance that growth will be substantially stronger than it has been since before the recession began.
Sluggish rise in new business inflows and a cautious approach to costs reportedly led Indian manufacturers to shed jobs in September.
Former Finance Minister P Chidambaram on Monday said the high growth that Indian economy has logged in the first quarter of the current fiscal was on account of the UPA policies and the new government must give it the due credit.
Top laggards in the Sensex pack included HDFC, ICICI Bank, TCS, HCL Tech, Kotak Bank, Asian Paints, TechM and HUL, dropping up to 2.67 per cent.
Indian economy is expected to improve marginally in the current financial year with its GDP at market price projected to expand by 3.4 per cent from 3.3 per cent in the previous fiscal, think tank OECD said.
The country's current account deficit is likely to hit a three-year high of 1.8 per cent or $43.81 billion in FY22, as against a surplus of 0.9 per cent or $23.91 billion in FY21, a report said on Thursday. According to an assessment by India Ratings, the Current Account Deficit (CAD) has moderated to $17.3 billion or 1.96 per cent of GDP in the fourth quarter of FY22 as against $8.2 billion or 1.03 per cent in the year-ago period, and massively down from $23.02 billion or 2.74 per cent in Q3, which was a 13-quarter high. The improvement in the key numbers are due to the remarkable improvement in merchandise exports in FY22, when it grew 42.4 per cent as against a negative 7.5 per cent in the pandemic-hit FY121.
Growth acceleration will be gradual and it is still early days for a sharp recovery, says Gautam Chhaochharia, executive director and head of India research, UBS.
CPI inflation will remain below the target of 6 per cent set for January 2016.
The rupee depreciated by 9 paise and settled at its all-time low level of 83.13 against the US dollar on Wednesday, weighed down by a surge in crude oil prices and strong American currency. Forex traders said the Indian rupee depreciated as the US dollar rose to the highest levels in six months. Moreover, elevated crude oil prices also weighed on rupee.
India's growth in the last three financial years has averaged just 1.9%. It is natural to project rapid growth from this low base. Crucial to that would be the assumption that the economy has suffered no lasting damage from the pandemic, observes T N Ninan.
'This market is very expensive in some pockets, dirt cheap in some, and the belly of the market is reasonably valued.'
Fitch said the full implications of Patel's resignation will only become clearer once there is some indication of the RBI's policy approach under his replacement, Shaktikanta Das
On the Sensex chart, Sun Pharma was the top loser, followed by Maruti, L&T, Hero Motocorp, Infosys, ONGC and RIL.
Markets ended weak tracking the expiry of April derivative contracts.
Growth in emerging market and developing economies will slow to 4.4 per cent in 2014, before rising to 5.0 per cent in 2015, it said.
Monsoon is likely to be below normal in the current year at 93%.
The World Bank on Tuesday projected India's economy to grow at 8.3 per cent in 2021 and 7.5 per cent in 2022, even as its recovery is being hampered by an unprecedented second wave of the COVID-19, the largest outbreak in the world since the beginning of the deadly pandemic. The Washington-based global lender, in its latest issue of Global Economic Prospects released here, noted that in India, an enormous second COVID-19 wave is undermining the sharper-than-expected rebound in activity seen during the second half of Fiscal Year 2020/21, especially in services.
Amid rising geopolitical risks, a vast majority of Indian CEOs have indicated in a survey that they are reducing or planning to reduce operating costs, even as they are more upbeat than their global peers on their country's economic prospects. However, most of the companies do not plan to cut their headcount or salaries, found the annual Global CEO Survey released by consultancy giant PwC here on the first day of the World Economic Forum meeting on Monday. The survey also found that about four in ten CEOs (40 per cent of global and 41 per cent of India respondents) do not expect their companies to be economically viable in 10 years if they continue on their current path.
Budget-makers in North Block are looking to maintain this fiscal status quo, in spite of tax revenues nowhere close to where the government wants and in spite of possible higher expenditure commitments.
Capital needs are likely to increase substantially each year.
